Back in May, I analyzed the French presidential election, in which I pointed
out that Emmanuel Macron’s stunning victory had come despite his not having
been affiliated with any traditional French party. This, I posited, would be
seen by many observers as a weakness, the assumption being that he might not be
able to garner the favor of parties that he didn’t represent in Parliament. But
I added that, seen from a different perspective, it might actually turn out to
be a strength, because he was bringing no inherited political rivalries with
him into office.
This, I said, was a place where Macron needed to avoid failure, seeking
to be the representative of a broad base of French voters and lawmakers who are
fed up with the apparent incapacity of the French left and right to put aside
their pointless ideological impasse and seek ways to actually serve the
wide-ranging interests of the people. And that this, in turn, could provide an
example to other countries, such as the United States, where the two extremes
of the political spectrum are pitted against each other in a bitter and
pointless ideological battle that concentrates on blockading any and all
compromises creating a stalemate in the actual business of government and
acrimoniously dividing the country’s population.
“What will most come into play,” I suggested,
“is his ability to create ample relations and to soothe divisions for the good
of the French Republic as a whole, and in this sense, his stature as an
independent who pulled off a landslide victory should work entirely to his
advantage in gaining broad support from all but the far-right and far-left of
the political spectrum, whose advance he must seek to isolate and block.”
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| Thierry Solère |
Just over a month in, this appears to already
be coming to pass. Macron’s signals that he will lead a centrist administration
whose aim is to focus on France’s most pressing problems rather than on the
political in-fighting that has for too long consumed the energy of the
mainstream political parties and divided the country has, by its own weight,
split traditional right-wing French Republicans into two separate political
groups. Die-hard far-right Republicans have vowed to resist the Macron
government on principle at every turn. But a score of Republican legislators
have formed a new political movement, which they are calling Constructive
Republicanism. They have been joined in a legislative coalition by 18 members
of the center-rightist UDI in backing Macron’s plans and are hoping that at
least another dozen members of Parliament will join their ranks.
Thierry Solère, who has emerged as the leading
spokesperson for the group is, himself, a controversial figure on the right,
one who has repeatedly gone head to head in clashes with other personalities in
the UMP Party in which he was active at a municipal and regional level before
scoring a major victory in national legislative elections. More recently, however, he has been named
“Deputy (lower house member) of the Year” for his part in building a workable center-right
alliance.
Solère is an ally of Macron’s pick for prime minister,
Edouard Philippe, and of current Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire. The
center-right “Constructivists” have indicated that they will “work with the
reforms that are going in the right direction and oppose when necessary” in
working with the Macron administration. That’s about as fair a plan as the new
president could possibly hope for from the opposition.
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| Edouard Philippe |
Macron had already gained the support of
centrists before the election, in the person of Francoise Bayrou, leader of the
Democratic Movement (MoDem). Last February, Bayrou announced that instead of
running for president himself, he would endorse Macron’s En Marche movement’s bid for the office. The alliance took rivals
and pundits alike by surprise. In turn, Macron made a commitment to seek
passage of a “clean government” law that Bayrou proposed.
A vocal campaigner for civil liberties, Bayrou
is also a powerful voice for the European Union, which he has described as "the
most beautiful construction of all humanity.” In the wake of Brexit, Bayrou is
seeking an expanded role for France in the EU.
These are not only healthy attitudes—as in
beneficial for the health of the nation—but also precisely the duty of elected
officials everywhere and not just in France. But in the last decade, politics
throughout the West has become increasingly polarized and reflective of the
situation that led up to World War II. Furthermore, this has led on the
international stage to a revival of the Cold War era, with its rarefied spy
versus spy atmosphere but, in the current case, with a decidedly more dangerous
escalation of triggers for potential proxy wars and possible future armed
conflicts among major powers.
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| Bruno Le Maire |
In this sense, France is fast shaping up as an
example for the world, and particularly for the West. Macron’s image as a
centrist peacemaker has nipped the emergence of a far-right populist trend in
the bud—at least for the time being—thus running counter to a growing
pseudo-democratic populist trend in the West as a whole, mostly notably
represented by latest political developments in the United States and, to a
lesser degree, Britain.
What is most important is what happens from
here on. If Macron manages to galvanize and maintain a centrist alliance
capable of driving genuine change and of providing cogent and practical
responses to the issues that really matter voters, he and his widening range of
parliamentary supporters stand to become a shining example to the world of how
to respond to the re-emergence of radical movements seeking to undermine
democracy and to instate a form of elitist autocracy in the guise of populism.
What are these common concerns that resonate
among people at large? The first and
foremost is an outgrowth of the need to re-establish, by example, trust in
government to do its job in providing effective solutions (and in democracy as
the best method for doing so). But at a more practical level, people in France
as in much of the rest of the West, are concerned about unemployment, automation,
a dwindling job market, financial insecurity, the perceived threat of massive
immigration and the lack of effective social security programs to deal with
these and other emerging social problems.
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| Bayrou and Macron, the first surprise |
The ability of Macron to properly invest his
current popularity and growing support in setting immediately to the task of
finding a path toward innovative and creative solutions to bolster the
confidence of a broadening constituency will be the measure of his success,
following a spectacular election win. Conversely, his failure to take advantage
of his momentum and show practical results at a grassroots level could end up
not only spelling his political demise but also the further undermining of
belief in representative democracy as the best possible system of
government—something that would lead to a renewed resurgence of populism and
subsequent autocractic designs.
Democrats everywhere should be rooting for
Macron in his efforts to create an effective centrist alliance focused on real
issues instead of on populist agendas. But in order for him to succeed, he will
need to concentrate all of his intelligence, political savvy, youth and vigor
on creating innovative and practical solutions to the unprecedented challenges
of the 21st century, the main result of which is the ever-increasing
social insecurity to which averaging citizens are ever more exposed.
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