A FRIGHTENING CLIMATE REPORT FROM THE UN...BUT NOTHING ENVIRONMENTALISTS HAVEN’T BEEN TELLING US FOR YEARS NOW

After reading through the latest UN report on global climate change, I have good news and bad news. The good news is that there is a way we humans can maybe manage to survive climate change. The bad news is, if we don’t implement, within the next decade or so, immediate, urgent and serious steps to ensure human survival in the near future, we’re toast.

And the news gets worse. The ceiling for keeping absolute catastrophe at bay is a total rise in global warming of no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Period. The climactic phenomena that we have been witnessing in recent years—prolonged drought, vast wildfires, unprecedented flooding, record summer heat, record winter storms, much more frequent and much more powerful tropical storms, typhoons and hurricanes, much increased cyclone activity, etc.—are all the result of a single-degree increase in global temperature above pre-industrial levels.

On our current course, in which a small group of countries is making an at least tepid effort to implement measures designed to decrease greenhouse gas emissions as part of a global plan to save our future generations from an environmental apocalypse, the overall global temperature will have risen, nonetheless, by at least 3°C by the end of the century—double the barely acceptable ceiling. If, instead, other countries decide to follow the lead of US President Donald Trump, for instance, pull out of all international environmental agreements and simply deny and ignore the warnings of scientists, we can expect to see a 4 to 5°C rise in global temperatures by the end of the century. Then again, perhaps saying that “we can expect to see it” is overly optimistic and merely wishful thinking.

The biggest and gravest takeaway from the new UN intergovernmental report is that we only have a maximum of 12 years to relentlessly slash global greenhouse emissions by 45 percent from their current level if we wish to have any hope of holding the warming trend to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. And another thing that the exhaustive 700-page report makes clear is that even the most miniscule, fractional rises in temperature matter. There will be an enormous difference in weather phenomena with even the half-degree rise to 1.5°C, just as there has been an enormous difference as a result of the one-degree rise up to now. An additional half-degree rise to 2°C would, the report indicates, be utterly disastrous.

Two degrees by century’s end was the goal set by the 2015 Paris Climate Accord—which Donald Trump, president of one of the worst offenders in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, unceremoniously scrapped on becoming president—but with a promise to try and comply with the tougher goal of 1.5°C. The clear language of the report says it all. There is no other way to view what lies ahead: Allowing temperatures to keep on rising at their current rate will take an enormous toll on not only natural systems but also on human lives and the global economy. The report demonstrates that the only truth, no matter who argues otherwise, is that only immediate action, including drastically and urgently reducing coal and petroleum consumption, might keep global warming in check and so, save lives, help ensure the integrity of the food supply chain, and help prevent a rising number of homes and communities from having to face certain destruction.

Clearly, deniers of global warming and climate change have their heads buried in the sand. And as such, when they are in positions of power, no matter how limited, they pose a threat to public health and to the immediate and long-term future of our environment—the environment that sustains all life on earth, including our own and that of future generations.

Normal everyday people tend to avoid talking about climate change because it is such an overwhelming and dispiriting topic. “What,” they ask themselves, “can I do about it?” But in Western democracies, for now at least, they still have the possibility of making dealing with climate change a number one political priority. If they don’t do that with their activism and their votes, government and corporate powers will surely continue to prioritize greed over global expediency, until the catastrophic effects of global warming can no longer be ignored...and by then, it will be too late.

More than just about any other factor, climate change affects us all. For instance, just with the single-degree rise in average temperature since pre-industrial times, we are witnessing the fastest melting of Arctic Ocean ice for the past 1500 years. Just since 1880, sea levels have risen by eight inches. What difference will the half-degree between a 1.5°C and 2°C temperature change make? According to the report, a rise of 2° from pre-industrial times would mean that marine fishing might well have to face double the decline in fishery stocks than with a half-degree lower rise. Corn harvests could also decline by double. Pollinating insect populations could decline by as much as threefold. Sea levels would rise an additional two inches, placing large human populations at risk of coastal flooding, and the number of people exposed to extreme heat at least once a year would also double with a 2°C rise compared with a 1.5°C rise in temperatures.   

If a the half-degree difference between a 1.5°C and a 2°C increase in global temperatures can wreak such havoc, try and imagine what a three, four or five-degree increase in temperatures by the end of the century will do. The projections are simply terrifying.

We are currently releasing over 50 gigatons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere annually. The UN report cites as encouraging the development of new industries, such as the creation of special direct air capture plants, the purpose of which is to take in air, remove the carbon dioxide, and return the purified air to the atmosphere. But at the moment, such technology is only in its most incipient stages and we would need many, many such plants to remove the thousand gigatons of CO₂ from the air that is currently trapping heat and steadily raising global temperatures.

Another method is to vastly increase reforestation, since trees are the earth’s natural lungs, absorbing carbon dioxide by night and releasing oxygen by day. But this too is unlikely to happen at the rate that it would need to in order to substantially reduce greenhouse gases, considering the exponential growth of the world population, which has nearly trebled since I was born. Vital forests are daily bulldozed, slashed and burned to make room for ever-increasing populations and agriculture. And unfortunately, this trend is only likely to reverse—again, too late—when vast numbers of human beings start to perish as a result of the effects of climate change—famine, fires, floods, solar radiation, super-storms, environment-related epidemics, wars over basic resources, land and food, etc.

In strictly economic terms, climate change will cost the world economy about 54 trillion dollars by 2100, if the overall temperature rise is 1.5°C about pre-industrial levels. That figure will jump to nearly 70 trillion if the temperature rise reaches 2°C. In any case, the economic cost will pale by comparison to the human toll.

Everyone on earth needs to stop resisting the science and stop justifying the causes of climate change. This latest UN report—created by over 130 scientific writers and based on tens of thousands of pages of scientific research—should be taken by the world at large as a wake-up call. And anyone who is not suicidal or who cares at all about what kind of world we’re leaving to our offspring should heed its warning.